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Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.
Clearly, the Chinese need the resources, but I don't think they want to clash with the industrial world which happens to be the market for their goods.
But the key thing is that Iraq, while it's got very large oil reserves, has marginalized itself as an oil exporter and these days its exports are only about one tenth that of neighboring Saudi Arabia.
But that's not enough: To maintain energy security, one needs a supply system that provides a buffer against shocks. It needs large, flexible markets. And it's important to acknowledge the fact that the entire energy supply chain needs to be protected.
But eventually it's a question of access: Getting access to fields is on top of the oil companies' agenda. We see a substantial build-up of supply occurring over the coming years.
A premium in the oil price of somewhere between 10 to 15 dollars a barrel reflects this heightened anxiety.
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