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We are shrinking the size of the federal government as a percent of our economy from over 21 percent of the economy to 19 percent of the economy. At the same time, we're growing the private economy.
They flooded liquidity in the marketplace but the mortgage rate is based much more on expectations of inflation. So if the average investor believes that there is inflation coming, they'll move that rate up.
The automatic stabilizer is unemployment insurance, food stamps, additional coverage of Medicaid.
That is - the reason for that is that home prices are only going to go up. Now, they've never gone down nationwide in our - since we've been keeping track of this.
So from the housing standpoint, steady as you go, I think, would be the best medicine.
Right now we think that rates will stay low, that you'll be able to get a mortgage below seven percent and that's kicked off a refinance boom that's going to put more money in the pockets of consumers.
Right now the long-term investors are telling us that they're not as concerned about inflation and so we're seeing these rates now move into the marketplace and out to the street - rates that individuals can get.
If there's a severe recession, the automatic stabilizers will come into effect, and we will still try to reduce the structural deficit, but we will not try to keep cutting the budget so that we keep worsening a severe recession.
I think if you go beyond a year - if this continues into the system in the out years, I think there is a risk and that - that we could have a negative reaction in the bond market and that will offset the good that was attempted to be done.
And so we have to be careful with looking at additional stimulus that we don't provoke an increase in the bond rate and then offset a lot of the stimulus we've already got.
And so the danger for the housing industry is if we see interest rates rise.
And so Fannie Mae produces very strong results for investors in - when interest rates are high and when interest rates are low, in recession and during booms.
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