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Herman Kahn Quotes & Sayings

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29 entries tagged including 2 subtopics.
Last updated Jan 2023

Herman Kahn Topics

QUOTES

World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race.

7 Likes

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To the extent that these advanced weapons or their components are treated as articles of commerce, perhaps for peaceful uses as in the Plowshare program, their cost would be well within the resources available to many large private organizations.

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There was no race - but to the extent that there was an arms competition, it was almost entirely on the Soviet side, first to catch up and then to surpass the Americans.

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The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, and in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.

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Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.

0 Likes

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Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs.

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Nuclear weapons are intrinsically neither moral nor immoral, though they are more prone to immoral use than most weapons.

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Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity.

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New developments in weapon systems during the 1950s and early 1960s created a situation that was most dangerous, and even conducive to accidental war.

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My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained.

0 Likes

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Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion.

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It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense.

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In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today.

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In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it.

3 Likes

I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking.

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I'm against ignorance.

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I'm against fashionable thinking.

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I am against the whole cliche of the moment.

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Human and moral factors must always be considered. They must never be missing from policies and from public discussion.

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Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely.

0 Likes

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