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When a system is in turbulence, the turbulence is not just out there in the environment, but is a part of the organization or organism that you are looking at.
Kevin Kelly
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We tend to think of the mind of an organization residing in the CEO and the organization's top managers, perhaps with the help of outside consultants that they call in. But that is not really how an organization thinks.
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This is actually a very important principle that science is learning about large systems like evolution and that futurists are learning about anticipating human society: just because a future scenario is plausible doesn't mean we can get there from here.
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The way to build a complex system that works is to build it from very simple systems that work.
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The way that organizations and organisms anticipate the future is by taking signals from the past, most the time.
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The system continually has to make this choice: it can either continue to exploit a known process and make it more productive, or it can explore a new process at the cost of being less efficient.
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The most certain thing you can say about the environment tomorrow is that it probably is going to be just like today, for the most part.
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The great advance of personal computers was not the computing power per se but the fact that it brought it right to your face, that you had control over it, that were confronted with it and could steer it.
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The current understanding was that it was impossible to predict how something would evolve because it was a very turbulent environment full of things interacting with each other.
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